Spanish Demography 2050

Topics: Demography, Population, Demographic economics Pages: 14 (4649 words) Published: October 16, 2013



* A preliminary matter: the starting population: 2-3

* Scenarios of future developments in fertility: 3

* Evolution and projecting mortality: 3-5

* Evolution and projected movements of migrants abroad: 5-7

* Results of the projection: 7-8




Demography is a discipline that articulates social phenomena that present movements of human populations. The importance of this discipline is that the data provided are essential for designing and planning policies for the development of peoples, because they offer a comprehensive characterization of the state of a population, as well as its development and change over its history. The need for information on specific social phenomena, as well as towns and settlements can be manifold according to the demands and concerns. In these cases, demographics data provides, realizing structure. The ongoing interdisciplinary dialogue in which demography is possible that the interpretation is made of demographic phenomena can open new questions and new proposals for improving the quality of life of the population.

Population projections are a prerequisite in many economic and social analysis aimed at detecting and quantifying future changes to current trends advertised. The population is in most cases an essential variable both in volume and number of inhabitants, and its structure, the relative weight of the different age groups. When making a short or medium term, five to fifteen years, the important thing is focusing on his foresight. The future behavior of the parameters of the population dynamics should be anticipated by analyzing recent trends, both in the direction of change as observed in its pace. In the very short term, one or two years, the forecast is generally reliable, unless there is a reversal of the trend or a sharp jog pace of evolution, which neither can nor intends to predict. The projection quantifies, for this term, the most likely development, based on the latest developments. Applications of this type of population projection are very numerous, especially as a tool for resource planning in areas such as the education system, health system, etc.. At the other end of the spectrum lie the temporal long-term projections, the order of fifty. It aims mainly to support the quantification of the more extreme effects of certain changes that develop the fullness of their long-term effects, such as pension systems intended precisely to implement the collective management of vital time individuals. What matters in this case is to highlight the great inertia of demographic and temporal extent of its rhythms. Consider that half of the Spanish population will live in Spain on a date that may seem as far back as 2050, is born. In the long-term projections, future scenarios can be made with a greater degree of freedom, but must in any case be consistent with developments more immediate. Thus, recent history intervenes twice, by the footprint permanently in the population pyramid and thus conditions the evolution in the near future, if discarded, as is advisable, the projection of abrupt changes nothing portends. In Spain, the demographic changes that have occurred in recent years, much like those who know other countries close to us, will shape our future very deeply. It is not, in essence, of changing circumstances, fads product or anomalous behavior in our society. Demographic change is primarily a reflection, and also a determinant of the tremendous economic, social and cultural rights which we live. The most characteristic feature of this development is the significant decrease in the number of births; the annual number rose from 669,378 to 368,361 in recent years, although it has increased during this period, the proportion of women of...

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• CANTALAPIEDRA, M. (2003): «Las proyecciones de la población de España»; en Sistema
• FERNÁNDEZ CORDÓN, J. A. (2003): «El futuro demográfico de España»; en Sistema
• INE (2005): Proyecciones de población a largo plazo. Periodo 2002-2060 (resultados nacionales) y periodo 2002-2017 (resultados por Comunidades Autónomas y provincias).
• INE (2009): Proyecciones de población a corto plazo. Serie 2008-2018.
• PUYOL, R (2006): «Estructura demográfica de la población española. Un ejercicio de
prospectiva»; en PUYOL, R. y ABELLÁN, A.: Envejecimiento y dependencia, Madrid
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